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November 27, 2005

予測市場関連イベント2件

12月は予測市場に関するイベントが2件開かれるのでメモ。両方行くのは私にはかなり困難。ロンドンの方に行かれる方、ぜひ情報交換求む。

まずは1件め。こちらはビジネス寄り。予測市場に早くから取り組んできたHPの現状もさることながら、Googleが何を考えているかが気になる。実験段階だったMSの動向も。

Prediction Market Summit
2005年12月2日
Mission Bay, UCSF

・Coffee and Registration
・Introduction, Agenda, Logistics
  John Maloney
・Tools - Zocalo: An Open-Source Platform for Prediction Markets
  Chris Hibbert, Principal Investigator, CommerceNet Labs
・Research and Practice: Google Prediction Markets: Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work
  Bo Cowgill, Project Manager
・Participant Introductions, Morning Break
・Special Keynote Presentation: Prediction Markets at Hewlett-Packard
  Bernardo A. Huberman, Senior Fellow & Director, Information Dynamics Lab, HP Laboratories
・Application Showcase: Prediction Market Pioneers
  Emile Servan-Schreiber, CEO and Maurice Balick, CTO, Newsfutures
  Mike Knesevitch, Director, Intrade
  Russell Andersson, Co-Founder, VP, Acting President, HedgeStreet
・Hosted Luncheon
・Research Paper - Prediction Markets: Interpreting Prices as Probabilities
  Eric Zitzewitz, Assistant Professor of Strategic Management, Stanford Graduate School of Business
・Research and Practice: Prediction Markets at Microsoft
  Todd Proebsting
・Afternoon Break & Refreshments
・Research and Practice: Prediction Market Science and Technology at Yahoo!
  David Pennock, Yahoo! Research
・The Future of Prediction Markets: Panel Conversation
  Facilitator: Chris Hibbert, CommerceNet Labs
  Panel:
   Emile Servan-Schreiber
   Maurice Balick
   Mike Knesevitch
   Russell Andersson
   Todd Proebsting
   David Pennock
・Adjournment and Reception

次いで2件め。こちらはよりアカデミック。StanfordのErik Snowbergのはけっこう気になる。

Mini-Conference on INFORMATION AND PREDICTION MARKETS
2005年12月19日
London Business School

Registration and Coffee

Session 1
・Designing Information Markets for Decision Making
 Paul Tetlock (McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin)
・Comparing Ways to Encourage Information Market Participation – A Kyle-Style Model
 Robin Hanson (George Mason University)
・Coffee Break

Session 2
・Efficiency in Exchange Betting Markets
 Leighton Vaughan-Williams (Nottingham Business School)
・Strategic Forecasting in Rank-Order Tournaments: Evidence from Horse-Racing Tipsters
 Olivier Gergaud (Université de Reims)
・Individual Behavior and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets
 Frederic Koessler (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)

Lunch

Session 3
・Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
 Justin Wolfers (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)
・Aggregation of Information and Beliefs in Prediction Markets
 Peter Norman Sørensen (University of Copenhagen)

Coffee Break

Session 4
・Partisan Impacts on the Stockmarket: Evidence from Prediction Markets and the 2004 Election
 Erik Snowberg (Stanford Graduate School of Business)
・Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data
 Koleman Strumpf (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
・Full Distribution Event Studies
 Eric Zitzewitz (Stanford Graduate School of Business)

Conference Dinner

どちらも1日だけのイベントなのだが、まあこのくらいの量なんだろうな。まだまだこれから、というわけだ。それでもAIDMAでいえばAやIの段階はもうそろそろ過ぎつつあるのではないだろうか。

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