Are you North Wind, or the Sun?
For those non-Japanese people who concern about Japan's move toward strengthening its military presence, the current situation may look worrying. There emerges a movement among people toward revision of the Constitution, including its Article 9, the "peace" clause. And the Prime Minister Koizumi visited Yasukuni shirine again, and many people support his visit. These movements, appearing in news, look like very quick and definite.
But as an "ordinary" Japanese, I would say these information do not reflect the "real" situation in Japan.
Media love sensational news. And people are more impressed by bad news than by good news. Thus what the media deliver a somewhat exaggerated image on what Japanese people think.
But in reality, the issue is more modest as well as ambiguous. Ordinary Japanese people are more or less unchanged and peaceloving. In a recent opinion poll, even after the landslide victory of the Liberal Democratic Party headed by Koizumi in September, majority of people were against revision of the Article 9. Among those who support the revision, there were substantial number of people who supported it not for enhancement of Japan's military presence, but for solving contradiction between the Constitution and the current status of the Self Defense Force. Typically, they never think of Japan commiting another war.
A Washington Post article says,
"The revised constitution, released on the 50th anniversary of the LDP's founding, faces major hurdles and may not be approved for at least a year."
But in reality, many Japanese people seem to have much longer time horizon. It would take much more than one year, if it occurs. Besides, for many Japanese, revision of the Constitution is much less important issue than everyday problems like economy or welfare. It doesn't matter to them.
This is the very reason for some foreign countries not to express too much pressure against Japan on the issues of revision of the Constitution. The Washington Post article above says
"Officials in both those countries have expressed concern about the proposed constitutional language on the military, noting the rise to power of nationalist Japanese political leaders and a new sense of patriotism among the populace."
Such pressure only fuels people's patriotism and results only in supporting "Shinto-fundamentalists." They do not represent average Japanese, just as the other side, "Article-9-Extremists" also do not. We should remember an old tale of "the North Wind and the Sun." Hostility does not nurture relationship, and would yield unwanted consequence instead.
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