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January 30, 2006

2006年アカデミー賞ノミネート予測市場 2006/1/29

第78回アカデミー賞に関する、Hollywood Stock Exchangeではノミネート予測市場のアップデート。

ノミネート予測市場は、主要8部門について、ノミネート作品を予測する。取引は1月30日(EST)まで行われる(ノミネート作品の発表は31日)。ノミネートされればH$15、そうでなければ0となる。

例によって、予測市場の価格のみによる予測。日本時間1月29日午後10時時点。

作品賞

作品名価格変化(H$)変化率(%)
Brokeback MountainH$15.01+1/8+7/8
CapoteH$10.46+1/8+1 1/4
Cinderella ManH$1.3600
The Constant GardenerH$4.61+1/8+2 7/8
CrashH$12.2800
Good Night and Good LuckH$12.5400
A History of ViolenceH$2.9200
King KongH$0.3200
Match PointH$2.66-1/8-4 3/4
Memoirs of a GeishaH$0.3200
MunichH$8.1200
The New WorldH$0.1900
Pride & PrejudiceH$0.5800
SyrianaH$1.3600
Walk the LineH$11.7600

「Brokeback Mountain」、「Capote」、「Good Night and Good Luck」、「Walk the Line」、「Crash」が有力。「Munich」が追う。前回「Crash」をの価格をまちがえて記載したため見落としたようだ。陳謝。


監督賞

監督名-作品名価格変化(H$)変化率(%)
Ang Lee - Brokeback MountainH$14.88+1/4+1 3/4
Bennett Miller - CapoteH$9.0300
David Cronenberg - A History of ViolenceH$4.0900
Fernando Meirelles - The Constant GardenerH$3.9600
George Clooney - Good Night and Good LuckH$12.67+1/8+1
James Mangold - Walk the LineH$2.4000
Paul Haggis - CrashH$11.2400
Peter Jackson - King KongH$0.1900
Rob Marshall - Memoirs of a GeishaH$0.1900
Ron Howard - Cinderella ManH$1.4900
Stephen Frears - Mrs. Henderson PresentsH$0.8400
Stephen Gaghan - SyrianaH$1.10+1/4+31
Steven Spielberg - MunichH$9.1600
Terrence Malick - The New WorldH$0.5800
Woody Allen - Match PointH$6.6900

「Brokeback Mountain」のAng Lee、「Good Night and Good Luck」のGeorge Clooney、「Crash」のPaul Haggis、あたりまでは堅い。「Munich」のSteven Spielbergと「Capote」のBennett Millerが弱含みながらも接戦。「Match Point」のWoody Allenは下げている。


主演男優賞

氏名価格変化(H$)変化率(%)
Anthony Hopkins - The World's Fastest IndianH$0.84+1/4+44 3/4
Cillian Murphy - Breakfast on PlutoH$0.4500
David Strathairn - Good Night and Good LuckH$12.8000
Eric Bana - MunichH$1.1000
Heath Ledger - Brokeback MountainH$14.2300
Jeff Daniels - The Squid and the WhaleH$1.4900
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the LineH$13.4500
Jonathan Rhys Meyers - Match PointH$1.2300
Nathan Lane - The ProducersH$0.3200
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - CapoteH$14.2300
Ralph Fiennes - The Constant GardenerH$3.0500
Russell Crowe - Cinderella ManH$4.3500
Terrence Howard - Hustle & FlowH$8.2500
Tommy Lee Jones - The Three Burials of Melquiades EstradaH$0.5800
Viggo Mortensen - A History of ViolenceH$1.2300

「Good Night and Good Luck」のDavid Strathairn、「Brokeback Mountain」のHeath Ledger、「Walk the Line」のJoaquin Phoenix、「Capote」のPhillip Seymour Hoffman、「Hustle & Flow」のTerrence Howardあたりで安定。


主演女優賞

氏名価格変化(H$)変化率(%)
Charlize Theron - North CountryH$11.2400
Claire Danes - ShopgirlH$0.4500
Felicity Huffman - TransamericaH$14.75+3/8+2 3/4
Gwyneth Paltrow - ProofH$0.7100
Joan Allen - The Upside of AngerH$2.5300
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson PresentsH$10.3300
Keira Knightley - Pride & PrejudiceH$7.2100
Naomi Watts - King KongH$0.9700
Natasha Richardson - The White CountessH$0.4500
Q'orianka Kilcher - The New WorldH$1.1000
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the LineH$14.23+1/8+7/8
Renee Zellweger - Cinderella ManH$0.5800
Sarah Jessica Parker - The Family StoneH$0.4500
Toni Collette - In Her ShoesH$1.1000
Ziyi Zhang - Memoirs of a GeishaH$5.9100

「North Country」のCharlize Theron、「Transamerica」のFelicity Huffman、「Mrs. Henderson Presents」のJudi Dench、「Walk the Line」のReese Witherspoonあたりは引き続き安泰、「Pride & Prejudice」のKeira Knightleyと「Memoirs of a Geisha」のZiyi Zhangの接戦も変わらず。


助演男優賞

氏名価格変化(H$)変化率(%)
Barry Pepper - The Three Burials of Melquiades EstradaH$0.5800
Bob Hoskins - Mrs. Henderson PresentsH$3.3100
Clifton Collins Jr. - CapoteH$2.4000
Craig T. Nelson - The Family StoneH$0.5800
Don Cheadle - CrashH$8.38-1/8-1 1/2
Donald Sutherland - Pride & PrejudiceH$1.1000
Frank Langella - Good Night and Good LuckH$1.3600
George Clooney - SyrianaH$13.0600
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback MountainH$12.8000
Matt Dillon - CrashH$10.5900
Matthew Broderick - The ProducersH$0.1900
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella ManH$12.93+1/8+1
Richard Jenkins - North CountryH$0.3200
Terrence Howard - CrashH$4.3500
William Hurt - A History of ViolenceH$6.43+3/8+6 1/2

「Syriana」のGeorge Clooney、「Brokeback Mountain」のJake Gyllenhaal、「Crash」のMatt Dillon、「Cinderella Man」のPaul Giamattiの安泰、「Crash」のDon Cheadleを「A History of Violence」William Hurtが追う状況も変わらず。


助演女優賞

作品名価格変化(H$)変化率(%)
Amy Adams - JunebugH$10.3300
Brenda Blethyn - Pride & PrejudiceH$0.4500
Catherine Keener - CapoteH$10.07+1/8+1 1/4
Diane Keaton - The Family StoneH$0.5800
Frances McDormand - North CountryH$5.13-1/4-4 3/4
Gong Li - Memoirs of a GeishaH$2.79-1/8-4 1/2
Laura Linney - The Squid and the WhaleH$7.9900
Maria Bello - A History of ViolenceH$7.7300
Michelle Williams - Brokeback MountainH$13.1900
Rachel Weisz - The Constant GardenerH$12.80+1/8+1
Scarlet Johansson - Match PointH$5.2600
Shirley MacLaine - In Her ShoesH$0.9700
Taraji Henson - Hustle & FlowH$2.14-1/8-5 3/4
Thandie Newton - CrashH$0.9700
Uma Thurman - The ProducersH$0.3200

「Junebug」のAmy Adams、「Brokeback Mountain」のMichelle Williams、「The Constant Gardener」のRachel Weiszに加え、一歩抜け出した「Capote」のCatherine Keenerが強い。The Squid and the Whale」のLaura Linneyと「A History of Violence」のMaria Belloが接戦、「Match Point」のScarlet Johanssonも有力。「North Country」のFrances McDormandは苦しい。


脚本賞

作品名価格変化(H$)変化率(%)
Broken FlowersH$1.1000
Cinderella ManH$8.1200
CrashH$13.84+1/8+7/8
The Family StoneH$0.7100
Good Night and Good LuckH$12.4100
Hustle & FlowH$7.3400
Match PointH$9.8100
Me and You and Everyone We KnowH$1.1000
Mrs. Henderson PresentsH$2.0100
The New WorldH$0.8400
SyrianaH$6.0400
The Squid and the WhaleH$10.98+1/8+1 1/8
The Three Burials of Melquiades EstradaH$0.8400
The Upside of AngerH$0.71+1/8+22 3/8
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-RabbitH$0.9700
The White CountessH$1.6200

「Crash」、「Good Night and Good Luck」、「Match Point」、「The Squid and the Whale」が有力、「Cinderella Man」と「Hustle & Flow」が追う。「Syriana」は苦戦。


脚色賞

作品名価格変化(H$)変化率(%)
Brokeback MountainH$14.62+1/8+7/8
CapoteH$12.4100
The Constant GardenerH$11.89-1/8-1 1/8
A History of ViolenceH$10.7200
In Her ShoesH$1.23+1/8+11 3/4
JarheadH$0.9700
King KongH$0.71+1/4+57 3/4
Memoirs of a GeishaH$0.5800
MunichH$7.60-1/8-1 3/4
North CountryH$1.10+1/4+31
Pride & PrejudiceH$2.4000
The ProducersH$0.8400
ShopgirlH$1.49+1/8+9 5/8
SyrianaH$0.45+1/8+40 5/8
Walk the LineH$7.4700

「Brokeback Mountain」、「Capote」、「The Constant Gardener」、「A History of Violence」が有力、「Munich」と「Walk the Line」がデッドヒート。

ほぼ固まりつつも、まだ流動的な部分も残っていそう。さて。

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