2006年アカデミー賞ノミネート予測市場
第78回アカデミー賞の時期が近づいてきている。Hollywood Stock Exchangeではノミネート予測市場が開設されていて、だんだん情勢は固まりつつある状況にみえる。
ノミネート予測市場は、主要8部門について、ノミネート作品を予測する。取引は1月30日(EST)まで行われる（ノミネート作品の発表は31日）。ノミネートされればH$15、そうでなければ0となる。
例によって、予測市場の価格のみによる予測。日本時間1月22日午後10時時点。
| 作品名 | 価格 | 変化(H$) | 変化率(%) |
| Brokeback Mountain | H$14.88 | -1/8 | -7/8 |
| Capote | H$10.07 | 0 | 0 |
| Cinderella Man | H$2.40 | 0 | 0 |
| The Constant Gardener | H$4.09 | 0 | 0 |
| Crash | H$12.41 | 0 | 0 |
| Good Night and Good Luck | H$13.32 | 0 | 0 |
| A History of Violence | H$4.22 | 0 | 0 |
| King Kong | H$0.32 | 0 | 0 |
| Match Point | H$3.57 | 0 | 0 |
| Memoirs of a Geisha | H$0.71 | +3/8 | +121 7/8 |
| Munich | H$9.29 | 0 | 0 |
| The New World | H$0.84 | 0 | 0 |
| Pride & Prejudice | H$0.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Syriana | H$1.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Walk the Line | H$12.80 | 0 | 0 |
「Brokeback Mountain」、「Capote」、「Good Night and Good Luck」、「Munich」、「Walk the Line」でほぼ確定っぽい。
| 監督名-作品名 | 価格 | 変化(H$) | 変化率(%) |
| Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain | H$14.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennett Miller - Capote | H$9.81 | 0 | 0 |
| David Cronenberg - A History of Violence | H$4.61 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Meirelles - The Constant Gardener | H$4.35 | 0 | 0 |
| George Clooney - Good Night and Good Luck | H$13.06 | 0 | 0 |
| James Mangold - Walk the Line | H$2.66 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Haggis - Crash | H$10.85 | 0 | 0 |
| Peter Jackson - King Kong | H$0.58 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Marshall - Memoirs of a Geisha | H$0.32 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Howard - Cinderella Man | H$2.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Frears - Mrs. Henderson Presents | H$1.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Gaghan - Syriana | H$1.62 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Spielberg - Munich | H$11.11 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrence Malick - The New World | H$1.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Woody Allen - Match Point | H$8.12 | 0 | 0 |
「Brokeback Mountain」のAng Lee、「Good Night and Good Luck」のGeorge Clooney、「Crash」のPaul Haggis、「Munich」のSteven Spielbergあたりまでは堅い。「Capote」のBennett Millerと「Match Point」のWoody Allenが接戦。
| 氏名 | 価格 | 変化(H$) | 変化率(%) |
| Anthony Hopkins - The World's Fastest Indian | H$1.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Cillian Murphy - Breakfast on Pluto | H$1.23 | 0 | 0 |
| David Strathairn - Good Night and Good Luck | H$13.06 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Bana - Munich | H$2.40 | -1/8 | -5 1/8 |
| Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain | H$14.36 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Daniels - The Squid and the Whale | H$2.66 | 0 | 0 |
| Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line | H$13.84 | +1/8 | +7/8 |
| Jonathan Rhys Meyers - Match Point | H$2.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Lane - The Producers | H$0.19 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Capote | H$14.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Ralph Fiennes - The Constant Gardener | H$3.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man | H$4.61 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow | H$7.99 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Lee Jones - The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada | H$1.23 | 0 | 0 |
| Viggo Mortensen - A History of Violence | H$1.75 | 0 | 0 |
「Good Night and Good Luck」のDavid Strathairn、「Brokeback Mountain」のHeath Ledger、「Walk the Line」のJoaquin Phoenix、「Capote」のPhillip Seymour Hoffman、「Hustle & Flow」のTerrence Howardあたりで安定。
| 氏名 | 価格 | 変化(H$) | 変化率(%) |
| Charlize Theron - North Country | H$11.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Claire Danes - Shopgirl | H$0.58 | 0 | 0 |
| Felicity Huffman - Transamerica | H$14.62 | +1/8 | +7/8 |
| Gwyneth Paltrow - Proof | H$1.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger | H$2.40 | +1/8 | +5 3/4 |
| Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents | H$10.46 | 0 | 0 |
| Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice | H$7.08 | -1/4 | -3 1/2 |
| Naomi Watts - King Kong | H$1.23 | 0 | 0 |
| Natasha Richardson - The White Countess | H$0.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Q'orianka Kilcher - The New World | H$1.36 | 0 | 0 |
| Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line | H$14.23 | 0 | 0 |
| Renee Zellweger - Cinderella Man | H$1.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Sarah Jessica Parker - The Family Stone | H$0.71 | 0 | 0 |
| Toni Collette - In Her Shoes | H$1.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Ziyi Zhang - Memoirs of a Geisha | H$6.95 | 0 | 0 |
「North Country」のCharlize Theron、「Transamerica」のFelicity Huffman、「Mrs. Henderson Presents」のJudi Dench、「Walk the Line」のReese Witherspoonあたりは安泰、「Pride & Prejudice」のKeira Knightleyと「Memoirs of a Geisha」のZiyi Zhangが接戦。
| 氏名 | 価格 | 変化(H$) | 変化率(%) |
| Barry Pepper - The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada | H$1.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Bob Hoskins - Mrs. Henderson Presents | H$4.61 | 0 | 0 |
| Clifton Collins Jr. - Capote | H$3.05 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig T. Nelson - The Family Stone | H$0.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Don Cheadle - Crash | H$8.51 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Sutherland - Pride & Prejudice | H$1.62 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Langella - Good Night and Good Luck | H$2.14 | 0 | 0 |
| George Clooney - Syriana | H$13.06 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain | H$13.19 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Dillon - Crash | H$10.59 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Broderick - The Producers | H$0.97 | +3/8 | +67 1/4 |
| Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man | H$13.06 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Jenkins - North Country | H$1.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrence Howard - Crash | H$4.35 | 0 | 0 |
| William Hurt - A History of Violence | H$6.56 | 0 | 0 |
「Syriana」のGeorge Clooney、「Brokeback Mountain」のJake Gyllenhaal、「Crash」のMatt Dillon、「Cinderella Man」のPaul Giamattiは安泰、「Crash」のDon Cheadleを「A History of Violence」William Hurtが追う。
| 作品名 | 価格 | 変化(H$) | 変化率(%) |
| Amy Adams - Junebug | H$10.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenda Blethyn - Pride & Prejudice | H$1.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Catherine Keener - Capote | H$9.68 | 0 | 0 |
| Diane Keaton - The Family Stone | H$0.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Frances McDormand - North Country | H$5.65 | 0 | 0 |
| Gong Li - Memoirs of a Geisha | H$4.35 | 0 | 0 |
| Laura Linney - The Squid and the Whale | H$8.64 | 0 | 0 |
| Maria Bello - A History of Violence | H$7.34 | 0 | 0 |
| Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain | H$13.19 | 0 | 0 |
| Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener | H$13.19 | 0 | 0 |
| Scarlet Johansson - Match Point | H$6.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Shirley MacLaine - In Her Shoes | H$1.49 | 0 | 0 |
| Taraji Henson - Hustle & Flow | H$3.05 | 0 | 0 |
| Thandie Newton - Crash | H$1.62 | 0 | 0 |
| Uma Thurman - The Producers | H$1.10 | +1/2 | +89 3/4 |
「Junebug」のAmy Adams、「Brokeback Mountain」のMichelle Williams、「The Constant Gardener」のRachel Weiszは安泰、「Capote」のCatherine Keenerと「The Squid and the Whale」のLaura Linneyも有力、「Match Point」のScarlet Johanssonと「North Country」のFrances McDormandはやや苦しいか。
| 作品名 | 価格 | 変化(H$) | 変化率(%) |
| Broken Flowers | H$2.01 | 0 | 0 |
| Cinderella Man | H$9.03 | 0 | 0 |
| Crash | H$13.84 | 0 | 0 |
| The Family Stone | H$1.23 | +1/2 | +73 1/4 |
| Good Night and Good Luck | H$12.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Hustle & Flow | H$7.34 | 0 | 0 |
| Match Point | H$10.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Me and You and Everyone We Know | H$1.36 | 0 | 0 |
| Mrs. Henderson Presents | H$3.18 | 0 | 0 |
| The New World | H$1.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Syriana | H$5.13 | 0 | 0 |
| The Squid and the Whale | H$11.76 | 0 | 0 |
| The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada | H$1.49 | 0 | 0 |
| The Upside of Anger | H$1.62 | 0 | 0 |
| Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit | H$1.75 | 0 | 0 |
| The White Countess | H$2.01 | 0 | 0 |
「Cinderella Man」、「Crash」、「Good Night and Good Luck」、「Match Point」、「The Squid and the Whale」が有力、「Hustle & Flow」が追う。
| 作品名 | 価格 | 変化(H$) | 変化率(%) |
| Brokeback Mountain | H$14.36 | 0 | 0 |
| Capote | H$12.15 | 0 | 0 |
| The Constant Gardener | H$12.15 | 0 | 0 |
| A History of Violence | H$11.24 | 0 | 0 |
| In Her Shoes | H$1.62 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarhead | H$1.49 | 0 | 0 |
| King Kong | H$1.36 | 0 | 0 |
| Memoirs of a Geisha | H$0.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Munich | H$6.43 | 0 | 0 |
| North Country | H$1.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Pride & Prejudice | H$3.57 | 0 | 0 |
| The Producers | H$1.23 | 0 | 0 |
| Shopgirl | H$2.79 | 0 | 0 |
| Syriana | H$3.96 | 0 | 0 |
| Walk the Line | H$7.99 | +1/2 | +89 3/4 |
「Brokeback Mountain」、「Capote」、「The Constant Gardener」、「A History of Violence」が有力、「Munich」と「Walk the Line」がデッドヒート。
はてさて今年はどうなるか。
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Comments
HSXが注目される季節がやってきましたね。
今年は私も参加してみようと、まずは登録しました。あれこれ眺めてじっくり売買してみようと思います。
とは言え、ノミネート候補作品はほとんどが見たことないものばかり。何を基準にして選ぶのか、悩みそうです。
Posted by: くりおね | January 24, 2006 09:38 PM
くりおねさん、コメントありがとうございます。
おおHSXに参加されましたか。日本人はハンディキャップありますよね。まだ公開されてないってのもありますが、そもそも好みがちがうってのが大きいですし。
Posted by: 山口 浩 | January 25, 2006 01:32 AM