2006年アカデミー賞ノミネート予測市場

第78回アカデミー賞の時期が近づいてきている。Hollywood Stock Exchangeではノミネート予測市場が開設されていて、だんだん情勢は固まりつつある状況にみえる。

ノミネート予測市場は、主要8部門について、ノミネート作品を予測する。取引は1月30日(EST)まで行われる（ノミネート作品の発表は31日）。ノミネートされればH$15、そうでなければ0となる。

例によって、予測市場の価格のみによる予測。日本時間1月22日午後10時時点。

作品賞

作品名	価格	変化(H$)	変化率(%)
Brokeback Mountain	H$14.88	-1/8	-7/8
Capote	H$10.07	0	0
Cinderella Man	H$2.40	0	0
The Constant Gardener	H$4.09	0	0
Crash	H$12.41	0	0
Good Night and Good Luck	H$13.32	0	0
A History of Violence	H$4.22	0	0
King Kong	H$0.32	0	0
Match Point	H$3.57	0	0
Memoirs of a Geisha	H$0.71	+3/8	+121 7/8
Munich	H$9.29	0	0
The New World	H$0.84	0	0
Pride & Prejudice	H$0.97	0	0
Syriana	H$1.75	0	0
Walk the Line	H$12.80	0	0

「Brokeback Mountain」、「Capote」、「Good Night and Good Luck」、「Munich」、「Walk the Line」でほぼ確定っぽい。

監督賞

監督名-作品名	価格	変化(H$)	変化率(%)
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain	H$14.75	0	0
Bennett Miller - Capote	H$9.81	0	0
David Cronenberg - A History of Violence	H$4.61	0	0
Fernando Meirelles - The Constant Gardener	H$4.35	0	0
George Clooney - Good Night and Good Luck	H$13.06	0	0
James Mangold - Walk the Line	H$2.66	0	0
Paul Haggis - Crash	H$10.85	0	0
Peter Jackson - King Kong	H$0.58	0	0
Rob Marshall - Memoirs of a Geisha	H$0.32	0	0
Ron Howard - Cinderella Man	H$2.14	0	0
Stephen Frears - Mrs. Henderson Presents	H$1.10	0	0
Stephen Gaghan - Syriana	H$1.62	0	0
Steven Spielberg - Munich	H$11.11	0	0
Terrence Malick - The New World	H$1.10	0	0
Woody Allen - Match Point	H$8.12	0	0

「Brokeback Mountain」のAng Lee、「Good Night and Good Luck」のGeorge Clooney、「Crash」のPaul Haggis、「Munich」のSteven Spielbergあたりまでは堅い。「Capote」のBennett Millerと「Match Point」のWoody Allenが接戦。

主演男優賞

氏名	価格	変化(H$)	変化率(%)
Anthony Hopkins - The World's Fastest Indian	H$1.10	0	0
Cillian Murphy - Breakfast on Pluto	H$1.23	0	0
David Strathairn - Good Night and Good Luck	H$13.06	0	0
Eric Bana - Munich	H$2.40	-1/8	-5 1/8
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain	H$14.36	0	0
Jeff Daniels - The Squid and the Whale	H$2.66	0	0
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line	H$13.84	+1/8	+7/8
Jonathan Rhys Meyers - Match Point	H$2.40	0	0
Nathan Lane - The Producers	H$0.19	0	0
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Capote	H$14.10	0	0
Ralph Fiennes - The Constant Gardener	H$3.70	0	0
Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man	H$4.61	0	0
Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow	H$7.99	0	0
Tommy Lee Jones - The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada	H$1.23	0	0
Viggo Mortensen - A History of Violence	H$1.75	0	0

「Good Night and Good Luck」のDavid Strathairn、「Brokeback Mountain」のHeath Ledger、「Walk the Line」のJoaquin Phoenix、「Capote」のPhillip Seymour Hoffman、「Hustle & Flow」のTerrence Howardあたりで安定。

主演女優賞

氏名	価格	変化(H$)	変化率(%)
Charlize Theron - North Country	H$11.63	0	0
Claire Danes - Shopgirl	H$0.58	0	0
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica	H$14.62	+1/8	+7/8
Gwyneth Paltrow - Proof	H$1.10	0	0
Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger	H$2.40	+1/8	+5 3/4
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents	H$10.46	0	0
Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice	H$7.08	-1/4	-3 1/2
Naomi Watts - King Kong	H$1.23	0	0
Natasha Richardson - The White Countess	H$0.97	0	0
Q'orianka Kilcher - The New World	H$1.36	0	0
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line	H$14.23	0	0
Renee Zellweger - Cinderella Man	H$1.10	0	0
Sarah Jessica Parker - The Family Stone	H$0.71	0	0
Toni Collette - In Her Shoes	H$1.75	0	0
Ziyi Zhang - Memoirs of a Geisha	H$6.95	0	0

「North Country」のCharlize Theron、「Transamerica」のFelicity Huffman、「Mrs. Henderson Presents」のJudi Dench、「Walk the Line」のReese Witherspoonあたりは安泰、「Pride & Prejudice」のKeira Knightleyと「Memoirs of a Geisha」のZiyi Zhangが接戦。

助演男優賞

氏名	価格	変化(H$)	変化率(%)
Barry Pepper - The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada	H$1.75	0	0
Bob Hoskins - Mrs. Henderson Presents	H$4.61	0	0
Clifton Collins Jr. - Capote	H$3.05	0	0
Craig T. Nelson - The Family Stone	H$0.97	0	0
Don Cheadle - Crash	H$8.51	0	0
Donald Sutherland - Pride & Prejudice	H$1.62	0	0
Frank Langella - Good Night and Good Luck	H$2.14	0	0
George Clooney - Syriana	H$13.06	0	0
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain	H$13.19	0	0
Matt Dillon - Crash	H$10.59	0	0
Matthew Broderick - The Producers	H$0.97	+3/8	+67 1/4
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man	H$13.06	0	0
Richard Jenkins - North Country	H$1.10	0	0
Terrence Howard - Crash	H$4.35	0	0
William Hurt - A History of Violence	H$6.56	0	0

「Syriana」のGeorge Clooney、「Brokeback Mountain」のJake Gyllenhaal、「Crash」のMatt Dillon、「Cinderella Man」のPaul Giamattiは安泰、「Crash」のDon Cheadleを「A History of Violence」William Hurtが追う。

助演女優賞

作品名	価格	変化(H$)	変化率(%)
Amy Adams - Junebug	H$10.33	0	0
Brenda Blethyn - Pride & Prejudice	H$1.10	0	0
Catherine Keener - Capote	H$9.68	0	0
Diane Keaton - The Family Stone	H$0.97	0	0
Frances McDormand - North Country	H$5.65	0	0
Gong Li - Memoirs of a Geisha	H$4.35	0	0
Laura Linney - The Squid and the Whale	H$8.64	0	0
Maria Bello - A History of Violence	H$7.34	0	0
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain	H$13.19	0	0
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener	H$13.19	0	0
Scarlet Johansson - Match Point	H$6.30	0	0
Shirley MacLaine - In Her Shoes	H$1.49	0	0
Taraji Henson - Hustle & Flow	H$3.05	0	0
Thandie Newton - Crash	H$1.62	0	0
Uma Thurman - The Producers	H$1.10	+1/2	+89 3/4

「Junebug」のAmy Adams、「Brokeback Mountain」のMichelle Williams、「The Constant Gardener」のRachel Weiszは安泰、「Capote」のCatherine Keenerと「The Squid and the Whale」のLaura Linneyも有力、「Match Point」のScarlet Johanssonと「North Country」のFrances McDormandはやや苦しいか。

脚本賞

作品名	価格	変化(H$)	変化率(%)
Broken Flowers	H$2.01	0	0
Cinderella Man	H$9.03	0	0
Crash	H$13.84	0	0
The Family Stone	H$1.23	+1/2	+73 1/4
Good Night and Good Luck	H$12.80	0	0
Hustle & Flow	H$7.34	0	0
Match Point	H$10.33	0	0
Me and You and Everyone We Know	H$1.36	0	0
Mrs. Henderson Presents	H$3.18	0	0
The New World	H$1.10	0	0
Syriana	H$5.13	0	0
The Squid and the Whale	H$11.76	0	0
The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada	H$1.49	0	0
The Upside of Anger	H$1.62	0	0
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit	H$1.75	0	0
The White Countess	H$2.01	0	0

「Cinderella Man」、「Crash」、「Good Night and Good Luck」、「Match Point」、「The Squid and the Whale」が有力、「Hustle & Flow」が追う。

脚色賞

作品名	価格	変化(H$)	変化率(%)
Brokeback Mountain	H$14.36	0	0
Capote	H$12.15	0	0
The Constant Gardener	H$12.15	0	0
A History of Violence	H$11.24	0	0
In Her Shoes	H$1.62	0	0
Jarhead	H$1.49	0	0
King Kong	H$1.36	0	0
Memoirs of a Geisha	H$0.97	0	0
Munich	H$6.43	0	0
North Country	H$1.88	0	0
Pride & Prejudice	H$3.57	0	0
The Producers	H$1.23	0	0
Shopgirl	H$2.79	0	0
Syriana	H$3.96	0	0
Walk the Line	H$7.99	+1/2	+89 3/4

「Brokeback Mountain」、「Capote」、「The Constant Gardener」、「A History of Violence」が有力、「Munich」と「Walk the Line」がデッドヒート。

はてさて今年はどうなるか。